A recent update to Goldman Sachs' 'Music In The Air' report has brought about revised projections for the global music market. This analysis highlights a recalibration in anticipated growth, with the 2025 recorded-music market now estimated at $31.4 billion instead of the previously forecasted $33.9 billion. Despite this reduction, optimism persists regarding the industry's future, especially concerning emerging markets. Additionally, the report underscores the potential influence of artificial intelligence on music production and consumption patterns, while also extending its forecasts up to 2035.
According to Goldman Sachs' latest findings, there is an observable deceleration in the global music sector for 2024. This stagnation stems from a combination of long-term structural challenges, cyclical economic factors, and one-time events. Nevertheless, the overall outlook remains positive as the industry anticipates significant opportunities to expand subscription-based services, particularly within developing regions. For instance, the gross revenues from streaming subscriptions are now projected to reach $31.3 billion by 2025, down from the earlier estimate of $33 billion. Meanwhile, ad-funded streaming revenue is expected to be approximately $11.3 billion this year.
In addition to these figures, the music publishing market’s predictions for this year remain steady at $10.7 billion. Interestingly, the live music segment has seen a slight upward revision from $37.7 billion to $38.2 billion. Looking ahead, the report paints a promising picture for the music industry through 2035, forecasting a total market value of $196.8 billion. By that time, net revenues could amount to $141 billion, distributed across $55 billion for recorded music, $18.9 billion for publishing, and $67.1 billion for live performances.
The role of AI in shaping this trajectory cannot be overlooked. While current impacts on label revenues appear minimal—AI-generated tracks reportedly account for just 0.1% of the royalty pool—advancements in technology continue to refine detection methods and adjust streaming royalty models. These developments ensure a balanced approach towards integrating AI into the music ecosystem without compromising traditional revenue streams.
As the intersection of technology and music continues to evolve, the upcoming one-day event in central London on June 17th offers further insights into these dynamics. Focused on exploring how technological innovations intersect with the music business, it promises valuable discussions relevant to both established players and newcomers alike. With such forward-thinking initiatives underway, the global music market is poised to navigate current challenges and harness emerging opportunities effectively over the next decade and beyond.
