The forward 4-quarter S&P 500 EPS estimate has shown continued strength, climbing to $353.22 this week. This marks an increase from the previous week's $352.62 and the quarter's starting point of $338.29. A significant development is the projected growth rate for Q1 2026 S&P 500 EPS, which has nearly doubled from an initial 14.4% on April 3rd, 2026, to an impressive 29.4% by June 26th. Looking further ahead, the expected S&P 500 EPS growth for Q2 2026 is poised to kick off at 24%, a notably higher figure compared to its preceding quarter.
A major contributor to these robust projections is the energy sector, which is currently forecasting an extraordinary 118% year-over-year EPS growth for Q2 2026. This projection, however, was made prior to recent shifts in the geopolitical landscape, specifically concerning Iran, and the subsequent decline in crude oil prices to below $70. It is likely that future quarters will reflect a more moderate year-over-year growth rate for the energy sector as these factors are incorporated into the forecasts.
This analysis, focusing on the S&P 500's earnings trajectory, will be followed by a detailed summary of Micron Tech's recent earnings performance, highlighting its remarkable quarter. The consistent upward revision in S&P 500 EPS estimates, driven by various sector-specific strengths, underscores a dynamic and evolving market outlook. Investors should remain attentive to these trends, recognizing the potential for adjustments as economic and geopolitical factors continue to influence sector performance.
