A new analysis from Media Partners Asia (MPA) forecasts a stabilization in the media rights value for the Indian Premier League (IPL) for its upcoming cycle (2028–32). The total value is anticipated to remain at $5.4 billion, mirroring the current 2023–27 period. However, this stability masks a per-match decrease of 13%, with values dropping from $13.2 million to $11.5 million. This reduction is attributed to an increase in the number of matches to 94, which expands content volume without a proportional rise in financial worth. The report underscores a significant shift in the economic landscape for IPL, marking the end of a two-decade era of continuous growth in media rights.
The current media rights cycle saw an unprecedented surge in value compared to the preceding 2018–22 period, which was valued at $2.55 billion. This dramatic increase was primarily fueled by intense competition during the 2022 auction. Viacom18, supported by Reliance Industries, secured digital rights for approximately $3 billion, while Disney retained television rights for $3.01 billion. This vigorous rivalry between the two media titans was the driving force behind the nearly threefold rise in rights values. However, the competitive dynamics have since changed. The subsequent merger of Viacom18 and Disney's Indian operations, leading to the creation of JioHotstar and consolidating all IPL rights under one entity, has effectively eliminated the competitive tension that previously inflated prices.
MPA's findings reveal that current rights holders are grappling with substantial financial pressures, including cumulative losses estimated between $1.8 billion and $2 billion. Advertising revenue growth has significantly decelerated, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 7% over the past three seasons, a stark contrast to the 18% CAGR observed in the previous cycle. This slowdown is partly due to policy-driven withdrawals by ed-tech and real-money gaming companies, alongside a ban on cryptocurrency advertising by the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI), all of which have narrowed the advertiser base. Furthermore, emerging global economic headwinds could further dampen demand, even as sectors like artificial intelligence offer some potential for new revenue streams.
Media rights now constitute a dominant portion of team revenues, accounting for 75% of total income, a considerable leap from 48% in 2017. While EBITDA margins have expanded to an average of 34% from 10% in the league's initial cycle, MPA cautions that this increased operating leverage also amplifies downside risks should rights values decline. Non-media revenues, although growing at a 22% CAGR since the pandemic, are starting from a low base. With limited upside anticipated for the 2028 cycle, team owners are increasingly pursuing franchise stake sales to secure liquidity.
Mihir Shah, Vice President of MPA India, emphasized that the rights reset in 2028 necessitates a strategic shift for franchise value creation. He advises a focus on expanding non-media revenue streams, including sponsorships, fostering an international presence, and enhancing digital monetization efforts. Shah also cautioned investors to consider the impending rights cycle headwinds and the inherent concentration risk when valuing franchises based on current EBITDA multiples, suggesting that the current favorable market window might be shorter than generally assumed. MPA’s comprehensive analysis, including a franchise scorecard, ranks Mumbai Indians highest, followed by Chennai Super Kings, based on criteria like championship wins, playoff appearances, social media engagement, and international footprint.
On the digital front, JioHotstar recently achieved a milestone of over 70 million concurrent users during the ICC T20 World Cup finals, with expectations for even higher viewership records in the upcoming 2026 IPL season. Despite this impressive audience scale, the report highlights a critical challenge: audience reach has not yet translated into the monetization levels required to justify current rights pricing. The disparity between streaming platforms' earnings and their expenditures on rights remains a significant constraint on valuations for the 2028 cycle. The report meticulously chronicles the evolution of IPL media rights from its inception in 2008 to the present, offering forward-looking projections derived from MPA’s proprietary financial modeling. Franchise economic analyses are based on aggregated financial data from seven prominent clubs.
The media landscape for the Indian Premier League is at a pivotal juncture, transitioning from rapid growth to a phase of market recalibration. The stabilization of media rights values, coupled with a per-match decline, signals a mature market facing new challenges. While digital viewership continues its ascent, the financial returns from these platforms remain disproportionate to the investment in rights. This scenario compels franchises to diversify revenue streams beyond media rights, focusing on sustainable growth through enhanced sponsorship, global outreach, and innovative digital monetization strategies. The upcoming cycle will test the resilience and adaptability of the IPL ecosystem, demanding a sharper focus on long-term value creation amidst a shifting economic tide.
